Lotteries and justification

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Lotteries and justification

The lottery paradox shows that the following three individually highly plausible theses are jointly incompatible: (i) highly probable propositions are justifiably believable, (ii) justified believability is closed under conjunction introduction, (iii) known contradictions are not justifiably believable. This paper argues that a satisfactory solution to the lottery paradox must reject (i) as ver...

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In some cases in which rational and moral agents experience moral uncertainty, they are unable to assign exact degrees of moral value—in a non-arbitrary way—to some of the different acts available to them, and so are unable to choose with certainty the best act. This article presents a new justification for the use of lotteries in this kind of situation. It is argued that sometimes the only rat...

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Prescott emphasizes similarities between lotteries that smooth nonconvexities for firms and for consumer-workers. We emphasize their differences. We also argue that models with employment lotteries that are used to generate unemployed individuals in a frictionless framework can have very different implications than models embodying frictional unemployment. As an illustration, models with employ...

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Symmetry and impartial lotteries

A prize is to be randomly assigned to some agent, so each agent designates one of his peers on a ballot. The ballots determine the lottery which selects the winner, and impartiality requires that no agent’s report impacts his own chance of winning. The primary results are (1) a characterization of all impartial rules which treat agents symmetrically as voters and (2) a characterization of all i...

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Synthese

سال: 2015

ISSN: 0039-7857,1573-0964

DOI: 10.1007/s11229-015-0989-5